The numbers are in, and 2024 was a big year for us. We administered approximately 200 separate promotions. Of those, our team built and hosted more than 60 websites where Probability was responsible for the secure collection of all entrant data - more than ever in our agency’s history. We collected millions of verified opt-in entrants with whom our partners can now build stronger relationships.
But all that success comes with additional challenges. Across all of our campaigns, we saw more attempts at fraud than ever. The good news is that as fraudsters get more sophisticated, so do we. We take extreme measures and employ highly technical techniques to verify that every entrant we deliver to our clients is from an actual, well-meaning human. We have more power and better insights than ever before. After all, safeguarding a brand’s promotions is paramount in what we do.
Why are we seeing more fraud attempts?
The increase in fraudulent entries correlates directly to improvements in automated systems. Fraudsters have become smarter, faster, and armed with cutting-edge technology to beat traditional defenses. The damages are industry-wide. A recent study from Juniper Research on click fraud (the advertising cousin of sweepstakes fraud) showed that more than 20% of ad spend is lost to click fraud. The report also predicts that $172 Billion will be lost by 2028.
Now, gaming online contests requires more sophistication than generating clicks, but tools for that are getting just as good. Modern bots, with the help of artificial intelligence, are skilled at mimicking human behavior. They can more easily register, complete entries, and bypass restrictions than in previous years. Captchas, once a reliable gatekeeper, are now easily outmaneuvered by cheap and readily available anti-captcha tools, making it easier for fraudsters to bypass key entry barriers.
What can we do?
Some of the best methods of fraud reduction are built right into the structure of the campaigns themselves. We encourage brands to offer experience-based prizes like event tickets and special-access passes, which require winners to appear in-person (and are not resellable). For example, in October, we launched Netflix OBX4 Poguelandia Sweepstakes, where nine winners received a two-night trip to attend the Outer Banks Experience in Santa Monica, CA.
Because fraudsters are leaning heavily on technology to accelerate their schemes, we counter those efforts with even more powerful technology. Our tools can flag suspicious behavior, such as repeated entries from the same IP address, or registration speeds that would be impossible for a real person. Human managers then review and eliminate fake entries.
Safeguarding trust
Brands are built on trust, and online sweepstakes and contests are often the gateway to a trustworthy relationship. Consumers trust that their chances of winning are as good as the contest rules say, and brands trust that entries are coming from real consumers. Combatting fraud isn’t just a matter of making sure that prizes don’t go to thieves. In working as hard as we do, we safeguard trust between brands and the consumers they hope to serve for a long, long time.
